5pm The market ended the day higher as I expected. The market is starting to look a little more bullish as I mentioned in the last couple of posts. We won't see 15k on the Dow in a while, but things are starting to look a little more bullish. Going back to the moving-from-uncertainty-to-certainty perception, we seem to have priced in a weak jobs number coming on Friday. I can't imagine a number that will make the market tank.
That said, we need to probably pull back tomorrow and Thursday. That will set up a nice sized rally on a not-armageddon jobs number.
Sears (SHLD) reported awful numbers this morning and the stock rocketed higher. Go Figure. Glad I was not a part of that one. It goes along with the same theme of cash not being a bad thing. I could have told you that the numbers were going to suck. I had no idea where the stock was going to go with the earnings report. In a normal market, I would have been short (buying puts) going into the earnings report. In this case. Cash was nice.
The dollar will continue to weaken long term. I still have the (UDN) trade on. I think that one will be in the portfolio for a little while.
The big news in the markets today was the bailout of the auto makers. All I have to say about that is Chapter 11. Last time I checked, we bailed out Chrysler once before. That clearly hasn't worked. Why give them more? Besides, Ford is forecasting 14 million in auto sales in 2011 when it projects it will finally turn a profit. I have heard of no one who thinks 14 million cars will be sold in 2011. The most aggressive projections I have heard is 11.5 million or 12 million. No way. Let em file. Until next time, stay low risk.
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