A little late..

12pm One of the nice things about being a trader is the flexibility of the schedule. In this case, I had some stuff to do this morning. I apologize for not getting this post done earlier. That said, here are my thoughts now.

First and foremost is the First Solar (FSLR) trade. Man did that work out well. I took it off a little bit ago. I took a 50% profit. I will take 50% profits all the time when they come in the space of 24-48 hours. Remember, the trade I set up was betting that the stock would move violently. It was set up to take advantage of the movement, not the direction. For example, when they reported after the bell last night I was excited that the stock was up by $16 after hours. Then the conference call proceeded and the company gave lame guidance. I was excited to see the stock fall off a cliff and I was glad to see it continue falling all day do far. Those are the easy trades. They are speculative and not appropriate for a large chunk of a portfolio. But they are fun and easy ways to juice returns.

After the action yesterday, I feel comfortable about telling you yesterday to take off another portion of the Gold (GLD) trade. I think there may be some upside to come, but the downside risk is high at this point because the technicals are breaking down. As a trader, you are never going to pick an absolute top or bottom. The bottom line with this trade is you have taken profits and doubled your money since Nov 20th. You still have the opportunity to take advantage of the upside that is still available and you have locked in some profits in the meantime.

One last comment. The Oil (DXO) trade from January is still under water. I admit when I make mistakes. But with this one, we were buying the ETF as an investment, not the options as a trade. Very bullish things have been happening in the Oil market right now. Supply numbers were bullish this morning. Demand is starting to (slowly) come back. The excess supply in the market appears to be coming off as well. Again, I don't think Oil goes to $150 any time soon, but you are in the double-long ETF. This means it doesn't have to go very high for you to make a TON of money. As a trader, being early is the same as being wrong, so I was wrong in that sense. However, I never took that trade off and a gain or loss is only a gain or loss when it is booked. I haven't booked anything yet. There is a long way to go with this trade. Until next time, stay low risk..