Possibly an Up Day Today

8:45am Tuesday's dramatic rally was clearly a short-covering rally that caught some people by surprise. The futures are pointing to a higher open this morning and it feels a little different than Tuesday. We just had a nasty jobs number and a weak durable goods number this morning. The futures took it in stride. I think we are at a point in the market cycle that is giving the benefit of the doubt to the downside. Anything that says we are not getting dramatically worse will be taken well. On the other side, something that shows a little sign of life in the economy will be taken with some skepticism but probably take us higher.

That said, as odd as this sounds, it might be time to buy a little First Solar (FSLR). Yesterday felt like a capitulation day. Volume was in excess of 14 million shares. The last time we saw that kind of volume was April 30th. I think we shook out some of the weak longs. I would be buying the stock incrementally. There is no need to get crazy with a full position here. You have some potential down to the Nov 20th low of $87.23 but there seems to be a lot of support down there. You can pick up a little today and average down all the way to about $90. Keep a stop under the Nov 20th low. Just like anything else in this market, caution and small position sizes will keep you in the game. I think the upside potential significantly outweighs downside risks. Now that the stock took a massive haircut yesterday, the valuations are starting to look nice.

Oil continues to firm up nicely. I still like the (DXO) here. I think it will still head higher and I am keeping that trade on.

Gold (GLD) is looking weak here, but at this point we are playing with the house's money. We have doubled our investment by taking profits at good times and we still have a little of the position on. If it goes to zero there is no risk in the trade. I haven't sold the rest of it yet.

The Silver (SLV) trade probably needs to come off for now. You can still get out with your original investment. The charts have broken down here and we need to wait for better times for the metal.

Hang on for an interesting day today. Remember to be careful and stay small. And until next time, stay low risk..