A year is a long time, huh? This time last year, Bear Stearns, Lehman, AIG, WaMu, etc. had not "happened" yet. The market was kind of chugging along. There were some rumblings of an inverted yield curve, a rapidly weakening dollar and some other things. No one had a clue what was coming. The market was off its highs but still hanging in there. There was a thought that some stocks showed significant "value" at at their prices.
Fast forward a year. The bottom has fallen out. Bear and Lehman and WaMu don't exist anymore. Niether do Freddie and Fannie in their quasi public forms. The big banks we have left are nothing but giant black holes for capital. And we got a jobs number this morning that came in near 600k. The funny part about the jobs number is that everyone in the market said, "OK, bad... but not so bad" and the market headed higher. Long time.
So the question for an investor is where do we go from here? The constant answer is do a little of what everyone else is doing. You need to be trading this market. Buying and holding stocks as an asset is not a good option anymore.
The area I have been looking at recently is in commodity stocks. They have had a nice little rally so far and I think they can move higher. The dollar is weakening right now. This is helping the market overall and commodities in general. There will still be some weakness in oil, but keep an eye on commodities for a mid term trade. I think there is a lot to go there. Until next time, stay low risk..
Friday, February 6, 2009
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