Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Don't Get Crazy Here..

4pm EST That was fun, huh? Nice rally today. Remember the ridiculous rally I was looking for over the last couple days? We got it. While the rally was nice, do not think the market is healthy all of the sudden. This is still a sick market. We all like to think things have gotten better overnight. Things are still bad. There were a lot of shorts covering today. While the action going into the close was a lot more positive today than the only up day last week, I am not convinced it is time to buy a bunch.

To paraphrase former Continental Airlines CEO Gordon Bethune, we don't need the financials to head directly North, but we do need them to go somewhere between Northwest and Northeast. That is what we will look for in a healthy market. When the financials stop taking the market down, we can rally. While they will not lead the market rally back, they need to stop bringing stocks down.

The (FAS) trade I gave you on Monday worked out well. Of course you took a little off right? No trader in their right mind ever gets a 40% move in one day and doesn't take a little off. No one says to take all of your profits off the table, but you need to take some off to lower your overall risk. I think you can still make some cash on this trade, but you need to take some profits home with you.

The prospect of bringing back the uptick rule is probably the one thing that sent stocks higher today. Citi has been telling people how great things are for a long time. Don't let the news outlets tell you otherwise. I think that slowing big money's ability to manipulate a market was much more important than anything. More tomorrow. Until next time, stay low risk.

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