Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Market looking a little...

9AM EST The market is looking a little heavy this morning. That doesn't mean we won't close higher today, but there may be a little draw down at the open. If it is strong enough of a downdraft, it might be an opportunity to add to positions. The trend is still up and that should be respected.

(KOL) was up about 12% on about 7 times the normal volume yesterday. If you took that trade on the morning, you made some great money. Of course, when you see institutional volume supporting the security, you need to stay involved because it will go higher. At this point, there is too much money getting long that they will not let it go down. That is an easy trade.

A look back at a trade I didn't take. SunPower (SPWRA) took off to the upside. I refuse to chase trades. I would rather be out of a trade wishing I was in than be in a trade wishing I was out. It may go higher (probably will) but I am not going to be on that train.

I had some trouble finding solid trades yesterday, but I did find one that looked interesting. I am not sure I will actually put the trade on because I have put a lot of capital to work recently but it will probably be profitable. I would be looking to buy puts on Apollo Group (APOL) they have signaled that the earnings growth is definitely going to slow and the institutional support is waning. I never short a stock outright because of the unlimited risk. I always buy puts to bet on a stock going down. I would be looking to go a couple months out (at least August) and be slightly out of the money (45-50). When I get short, I always use a smaller size position. I, usually use a risk of about 1-2% of my portfolio. I would be more in the 1% rangehere. Until nexgt time, stay low risk..

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