Thursday, May 21, 2009

Maybe..

8am EST Maybe this is the time to get the correction we need. The market had a decent selloff yesterday. I would have liked to see some more volume with the selling to tell me that the sell off was for real. The volume was good but not great. Maybe we can get it today. Even though the futures are lower this morning, there seems to be some underlying strength. I am still heavily in cash, but I did add a little Bank of America (BAC) on the afternoon weakness.

If we start to correct properly over the next couple of days, keep an eye on Altria (MO). As with any tobacco company, there are litigation issues out there including the recent news about potential FDA regulation.

The technicals on this stock are truly compelling. The $17.20-17.65 range has been a level of resistance going back to November 2008. The last positive day was back on May 13th leaving the stochastics at a neutral level. Each down day has closed significantly higher than the intraday bottom, signalling some support. It is currently sitting just above the 50 day moving average. The stock has been in a strong up trend since March 3rd along with the greater market and the upward trend line is currently showing some support. With the stock closing at $16.77, it looks like you could see some more support in the $16.40 if necessary. The stock kissed the 200 day moving average at $17.62 on May 13th and retreated. Another move above that area, and the stock will have broken the 200 day moving average.

This stock has been a range for quite a while and it is now at a decision point. It could be either starting a strong uptrend soon or falling back significantly. I want a little more information before I buy, but (MO) can be a great long term stock that's ready to move much higher. Until next time, stay low risk..

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