Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Stock Futures..

8:10 AM EST Have a look at the equity futures this morning. They were relatively strong early this morning. They have weakened significantly over the last hour or so. Why? FedEx earnings? Anticipation of the CPI number? Probably a little. If you want to see a 1-1 correlation, look at the dollar. I have said it several times, you need to look at the dollar to understand how equities are going to do.

The equities market is dominated by massive international companies, many of which are oil or commodity related. The smaller, more domestically oriented companies do not move the market as much because they have smaller market caps. As the dollar strengthens, these large companies have a harder time making money because their goods and services are more expensive in other countries, where a large chunk of their revenues are made. This hurts them. Want to know how the market is going to do? Watch the dollar. Pretty simple.

I am going to avoid any long recommendations for now. I think the overall market is going to be a little heavy on any long positions now and might make for stops to be prematurely triggered. Yesterday's pick Partner Communications (PTNR) is close to where I would have put a stop if I had the trade on.

This is a time right now to reassess where your portfolio is. Look at your positions. Are there stocks you can trim some profits? Are there long term investments you can buy a little more at a lower price? Keep an eye on the dollar and wait for some opportunity. Until next time, stay low risk..

No comments: